Now many may recognize this mystery team as the Florida Marlins (who now hold a 11-4 record), who have surprised many by jumping off to an 11-3 start. Now this is obviously a small sample size of the full regular season, and most people would agree that they are unlikely to end the season with the same .786 winning percentage, good for a whopping 127 wins. However, are these early wins significant in that they will likely lead to a final record featuring more than 72 wins, or are these wins completely statistically irrelevant and the Marlins continue on pace for 72 wins? Before we can answer that question, let’s review dependent and independent probability.

Flipping Coins

When you flip a coin, each subsequent coin flip is independent of all the coin flips that preceded it. When you flip a coin, you have a fifty-fifty chance of seeing heads. So when you begin a series of 50 coin flips, you would be projected to see 25 heads and 25 tails. However, if your first ten flips all come up heads, you are no longer expected to see only 25 heads at the end. That’s because your next 40 coin flips are independent of your first ten flips, so each of those flips still has a fifty-fifty chance of seeing heads, leading to a projection of 20 heads over the final 40 flips. So your projection of seeing heads over 50 coin flips when you know that the first ten all landed heads, will not be 30, your 10 head flips that already happened, with 20 more projected head flips to come.

Monty Hall Paradox

The Monty Hall Problem was famously posed in Parade Magazine:

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

The answer surprised many, because it is to your advantage to switch your choice, decidedly so. Switching your choice increases your chances of selecting the right door by a full 1/3, to 2/3 chance.

Now there is an important detail missing from the problem, the host knows which door the prize is in. Therefor each event, the opening of the doors, is dependent on the events preceding it.

When you first select a door, there are three choices, therefore your chance to select the prize door is set at 1/3. When the host goes to open a door, he knows which ones have the goats and which the prize. Therefore he will always open the door with a goat in it. Now you are left with two doors, one with a goat in it and one with a prize. Now you probably think that each door holds a 1/2 chance of being the prize door, since there are only two doors. And you would be correct, if you hadn’t started with three doors and the opened door was not dependent on the other doors. But instead the host does know which door held the prize, and he specifically selected a door that did not hold it. Thus the revelation of information to you that was already known does not change the initial odds for the door you selected. Instead, the door you selected remains with only a 1/3 chance of holding the prize. However, the odds for the door you did not select did. Initially there was a 2/3 chance that one of the other doors held the prize. That is still true, however rather than those odds being split between two doors, only a single door holds those odds. Thus the single door that you did not select now has a 2/3 chance of holding the prize, and it is a good idea to change your selection. Feel free to read more about the Monty Hall Paradox.

Back to Baseball

Jeremy Hermida after Uggla hit a solo home run against the New York Mets in the second inning of a baseball game in Miami, Friday, April 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

Now back to the Marlins. If they are projected to win 72 games and they start the season 11-3, are they still projected to finish the season with 72 wins, or should that projection raise to 77 games. Are future baseball game outcomes dependent or independent of past game outcomes?

Now there is a chance that future games are are slightly dependent on past games. A winning team further down the season will likely get challenged a bit harder, especially by fellow contending teams who know that a win will swing the standings two full games. A winning team will also have lower waiver rights, and may miss out on some team dumping that situational lefty they badly need. On the other hand, opposing teams may letup against a weaker team, maybe resting a regular or two, or just subconsciously slacking in their play. However, those factors are relatively small in the grand scheme of things, and the outcome of a game in April really doesn’t affect the outcome of a random game in July.

Another key point to realize is that when a team is predicted to win 72 games, that is a projection, it’s a guess. It may be an estimated guess but it is not made with any actual knowledge of the future – that is until Nate makes a few updates to PECOTA – but for now the final record of a team is conjecture. There is no host opening a door that he knows does not contain a prize like in the Monty Hall Paradox. No one knows that the Marlins will definitely win 72 games.

This means that the next 148 games of the Marlins are more or less independent of the past 14 games. The Marlins current 11 wins do not affect any future wins or losses. Thus since the Marlins were thought of as a 72 win team with a .444 winning percentage, they should still be considered a .444 team. That doesn’t mean they will be projected to finish the season with a .444 winning percentage, but that they would be projected to win the next 148 games at a .444 clip, good for 66 more wins and 77 total wins for the season.

New York Yankees Chien-Ming Wang throws a warm-up pitch before starting a game against the Atlanta Braves during their spring training baseball game at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Let me further explain this from a more extreme real life example. Consider Chien Ming Wang. He’s thrown perhaps the worst six innings in baseball history in his last three starts. In this six innings Wang has given up 23 earned runs to a tune of a 34.50 ERA. Now Pecota predicted Wang to sport a 4.28 ERA at seasons end. Wang’s next start is being skipped over due to an off day, and he’s been sent to Tampa to work on his mechanics with the possibility of a DL stint. Let’s say that he comes back from that with either his unknown injury fixed, or they found a flaw in his mechanics and corrected it so his sinker sinks again. So now he comes back as the same pitcher Pecota predicted to finish the season with a 4.28 ERA. Except now thanks to the six innings and 23 earned runs that already happened, he’s just not going to finish the season with that 4.28 ERA. Just because he threw the worst six innings in baseball history to start the season, doesn’t mean he’s going to turn into an ace and throw a 1.50 ERA the rest of the way to finish the season at a 4.28 ERA. No, instead he’s going to be that 4.28 ERA pitcher that Pecota predicted for the rest of the season, which then added with the six innings and 23 earned runs that already happened will mean that his final season line will be decidedly worst than a 4.28 ERA.

Now there may be a caveat, depending on the variables taken into account by the projection system. Part of that original 72 win projection may have accounted for the Marlins playing against the pitiful Nationals 19 times this season. Their past 14 games include 6 of those 19 games against the Nationals as well as two against the Pirates. The remaining 148 games may include a slightly tougher projected strength of schedule. Taking strength of schedule into account, the Marlins may have been expected to go .500 (pulled that number out of thin air for this hypothetical) with 7 wins over the the first 14 games of the season, and .439 with 65 wins the rest of the year. The actual record of 11 and 3 would not change the projected 65 wins and .439 winning percentage the rest of the year, leading to a final projection of 76 wins and a .469 winning percentage.

While early season blips like 11 wins in 14 games, a batter hitting .400, or a pitcher allowing only a run or two over the first three starts may be prime examples of small sample sizes at play, those results are not completely insignificant for final records or totals. If you thought a hitter would hit .300 for the season and he’s now hitting .400, he’ll still likely hit .300 for the rest of the season ending the season over .300. Players and teams will regress back to average, that hitter won’t hit .400, the Marlins won’t win 127 games and Chien Ming Wang (hopefully) won’t break the record for allowing the most earned runs in a season, but that doesn’t mean the regression will go all the way back to average either. What happens in April doesn’t stay in April, early season results matter, whether they are good or not.

Patriot fans shouldn’t complain too much about the weakness of the AFC West, since that 11-5 record is propped up by a 3-1 record against the AFC West. Speaking of the West and weak divisions, the Patriots were also handed four games against the equally pathetic NFC West, all four resulting in victories. That’s seven wins against the two worst divisions in football, with only one (maybe two, pending the conclusion of the Broncos/Chargers game tonight) of those victories against a team with a winning a record, and that would be a world dominating 9-7 at that.

So New England fans, don’t start that complaining too soon. You could have just as easily been handed a schedule this year that included games against the NFC East and AFC South, and you’d be sitting out of playoffs with an 8-8 record instead.

I’m really surprised they left out Helvetica and Barack Obama’s Gotham.

50 Reasons people have sex from How I Met Your Mother.

It’s a very interesting idea taking the whole unplugged concept even further and more intimate. I’m quite surprised by the level of talent they’ve been able to record, as well as the recording quality itself.

I first discovered the sessions while browsing YouTube for New Pornographers videos and came upon their Black Cab Session performing, All the Old Showstoppers off of their then recently released Challengers album. I really liked this stripped down version featuring just the voices of Carl Newman and his niece, Kathryn Calder, plus an accompanying acoustic guitar and accordion. Plus, I think I have a crush on Kathryn Calder.

Another session that is a favorite of mine is Spoon’s I Summon You off of Gimme Fiction. This is another song that lends itself well to being stripped down to just the bare essentials of a Britt Daniel’s voice and guitar.

However, when I was recently browsing some of their newer archives I came across a real find, Brian Wilson and accompaniment, singing That Lucky Old Sun before breaking down into a short rendition of California Girls. I don’t think I need to say anything else, just see for yourself.

This concept came into play for me as I was redesigning the comment form on this very website. Rather than placing field labels in the HTML itself, I’m using javascript to insert my labels into the fields themselves, then when the user focuses on a field the javascript removes the label leaving the field blank and ready for user input. However, if a user was to come to this site with javascript turned off, or from a mobile device that doesn’t support javascript all they will see is three fields with no labels. Yea, some people may assume the fields are name, e-mail and url since that’s pretty much the blog standard, but I can’t assume that. There may be users who see these three fields and have no idea what to do with them. And since I want to encourage everyone to join the discussion and comment, I needed to make sure javascript-less users get some kind of useful user experience.

Therefore I decided to put proper labels back on those fields. Then when a user visits this site with javascript turned on and using a browser my javascript library supports, that javascript hides those labels and lets my place-holding text do its job. That also means when a user comes to my site without javascript and with the place-holding text not working, the javascript will never have hid the labels in the first place.

As more sites use more and more flash and javascript, not to mention trendy AJAX, designers and developers have to remember to continue to accommodate those users browsing in less than ideal environment.

That said, this site isn’t exactly optimized for IE7 or IE6 yet, but it’s a personal site that I don’t have all the time in the world for, and I’ll get to you IE folks eventually. In the mean time have patience.

It’s the news story that keeps on giving, literally defining, shooting yourself in the foot.

The Apple iPhone, featuring at&t service

The iPhone and at&t probably win the battle of the plans, as theirs is by far the simplest. Basically, at&t features just four all-inclusive plans for the iPhone, the price dependent on how many anytime minutes you want. All of the plans include unlimited data, both e-mail and web, as well as visual voicemail. This is the simplicity that the Apple shopping experience is known for. I don’t talk much on my phone, so I’m looking for the cheapest plan, which at 450 anytime minutes per month clocks in at a straight $69.99.

The Google G1, featuring T-Mobile service

T-Mobile and the G1 actually win the price wars, but I have more concerns regarding their network, and overall shopping experience leaves a little to be desired. T-Mobile first has you select a voice plan, their individual basic plan comes with only 300 whenever minutes, but only gives you unlimited weekend minutes, no unlimited night minutes. The individual value plan at $39.99 comes with 600 Whenever minutes and both nights and weekends unlimited. The basic web/e-mail plan is unlimited and also comes with 400 text/video message for $24.99. There’s some other plan features, but none of them interest me. So now we have T-Mobile offering me more minutes for even less than at&t at $64.98. That could be even lower at $54.98 if you almost never use your phone as a phone and opt for only 300 minutes.

The BlackBerry Storm, featuring Verizon service

Verizon and the BlackBerry Storm, like T-Mobile, first have you select a voice plan, their 450 minute plan pricing in at $39.99. In Verizon’s favor, their network is extremely strong in my area, and almost all of my friends and family are part of the network leading me to rarely use my actual minutes. Verizon has five different text message plans, of which I want no part of any of them. Now to the confusion, Verizon offers two so-called BlackBerry E-mail plans, the E-mail and Web for BlackBerry® at $29.99 per month and the Blackberry® Solution Unlimited Data Usage plan at $44.99 per month. I’m really not sure what the difference is between the two plans. The second plan is obviously advertised as unlimited, but the first plan has no mentions of limits in any of its literature. I’m hoping the first plan is what I’m looking for, so I’ll select that. Verizon also offers a visual voicemail plan for $2.99 per month and their VZ Navigator, which is their turn-based GPS navigation system, for $9.99 per month. Add all this up and I get a monthly bill of $82.96. And that assumes that the E-mail and Web for BlackBerry® is the data plan that I want, and I don’t have to fork over another $15 per month for actual unlimited access.

After considering all this information, I’m really starting to lean towards the iPhone, but I still need to research the G1 and the effectiveness of the T-Mobile network in my area before I make my final decision. Needless to say, despite my affinity for the Verizon network, the price of their plan alone basically disqualifies them, and that’s before I even had a chance to compare the Storm to the iPhone.

A musical explaining the politics behind California’s proposition eight.

Tennessee Titans (-11½) over DETROIT LIONS

This slate of Thursday games is pretty pathetic. Don’t feel so bad if you miss a few snaps while you eat some turkey. The Titans loss last week wasn’t exactly a fluke, but it’s far from a sign of future doom. The Titans are still a good team, they just aren’t historically great. Now the Lions, they just may be historically bad…

DALLAS COWBOYS (-12½) over Seattle Seahawks

The Cowboys need to win games like these to continue to put itself back into the playoff picture.

Arizona Cardinals (+3½) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Rather than rallying around Reid and McNabb, the Eagles look like a team on the brink of total collapse. I’ve been both a McNabb and Reid supporter for some time, but I think that at least one if not both need to be replaced for next season. If Reid is canned, perhaps another coach could light a fire under McNabb, so there is a chance his Philadelphia career can be salvaged. However, I think there is no hope for Andy Reid who has shown little ability to adapt these past few years while building a team with glaring weaknesses — poor clock management, too reliant on the pass, no short running game at all — that will never play up to its talent level.

Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1½) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

A lot is being made of Matt Cassel and his back-to-back 400 yard passing games. I think the key point many people are missing is that the last quarterback to accomplish this feat was Billy Volek, who hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire since then. As to the Matt Cassel and Tom Brady comparisons, remember that Tom Brady had all of Troy Brown, David Patten and Jermain Wiggins to throw to during his first season, while Cassel has the All-World offense of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson and Jabbar Gaffney supporting him. If some team like the 49ers or Vikings throws a boatload of money Cassel’s way, they are going to be sorely disappointed.

Monday Night Cheerleader

Monday Night Cheerleaders: Larisa and Marisa of the Houston Texans

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3½) over Jacksonville Jaguars

I have a special treat for all of you fans of the Monday Night Cheerleader, twins! Larisa and Marisa are 23 year old twins from the cheerleading squad of the Houston Texans. Enjoy and be thankful.

I still really like the future of this Texans team, the offense is solid, however I am worried over what happened to this up-and-coming defense. I really thought the Texans defense was ready to take a step forward after a promising year last season, however they’ve completely fallen apart this year.

Lock of the Week (that doesn’t involve the Detroit Lions)

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7½) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Eagles tied the Bengals, the Ravens killed the Eagles, so by the transitive property of the NFL the Ravens should destroy the Bengals, right?

Upset of the Week

Atlanta Falcons (+5½) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

West Coast teams haven’t fared so well when traveling east this season, but I think the Falcons can handle the reverse just fine. You can pretend that I care about the Michael Turner/LaDainian Tomlinson grudge/reunion match, but I don’t.

The Rest

Buffalo Bills over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+6½)

Kansas City slowed the Bills from their free fall, while the 49ers should put a complete stop to it.

Indianapolis Colts (-4½) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

I don’t care what kind of numbers Kurt Warner or Drew Brees are putting up, Peyton Manning carried this team on his shoulders earlier this season when it was decimated by injuries, and now that the team is gaining back its health, Peyton looks downright unstoppable.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3½) over Carolina Panthers

I don’t know why I keep trusting this Packers team, but I do. In theory, the Panthers should give the Packers a hard match-up as they can run on anyone, while anyone can run on the Packers. And yet…

Miami Dolphins (-7½) over ST. LOUIS RAMS

Miami gets the gift of an NFC West team.

NEW YORK JETS over Denver Broncos (+7½)

The Jets get the gift of an AFC West team. However, this Broncos team does worry me. Part of the reason why the Jets were able to dominate the Titans was because they matched-up perfectly against the Titans strengths and weaknesses. The Jets had a great run defense that was able to smother the Titans rushing game and challenge Kerry Collins and his band of replacement level receivers to beet them, and they didn’t. The Broncos have an offense that is the exact opposite. While the Titans think run first, second and last, the Broncos pass as often as possible. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal could give the Jets secondary — the team’s Achilles heel — a challenge.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4½) over New Orleans Saints

NFC South rule, go with the home team.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3½) over New York Giants

This seems about the right time for the Giants to lose a game.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland isn’t winning two games in a row.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3½) over Chicago Bears

I really think that Kyle Orton’s season is real progress rather than a fluke, however I also think that Adrian Peterson will run all over this Bears defense that’s living more on reputation than on actual performance.

A Blast from the Past

• Straight Up: 12-4 Last Week, 111-65 for the season
• Vs. Spread: 10-6 last week, 98-78 for the season
• Game of the Week: 6-6 straight, 8-4 spread
• Monday Night Cheerleader: 5-7 straight, 4-8 spread
• Lock of the Week: 9-3 straight, 8-4 spread
• Upset of the Week 5-7 straight, 7-5 spread

The Ground Rules

Home team in CAPS, spread in ( paren ). If the spread is listed after the victor, then they will cover. If the spread is listed after the loser, then it will not be covered.

Spreads are taken from ESPN.com. I don’t do lines.

Now any team coming off a near-perfect season is likely to decline a bit, but I’m not talking about a little regression here. The reign of the Patriots as a dominant team in the National Football League has come to an end. The dynasty is over.

Some might say that this season is a fluke, the Tom Brady injury didn’t exactly forebode good things, and the rest of the New England Roster haven’t been examples of great health either. However, I think the injuries, rather than being flukes, are part of the Patriots decline. The Patriots have long been a team of savvy veterans, a team of discipline and football wisdom. The downside is that older players have a greater tendency towards injury, see the New York Yankees as further proof.

So yeah, next season the Patriots may get Tom Brady back. Rodney Harrison may return, Adailus Thomas should be fine and Laurence Maroney could survive an entire season. But that’s all unlikely. Thanks to post-surgical infections, it is doubtful that Tom Brady can return in time to start the season. Even when he does return it is unlikely that he will be at full health. Surgeries like his tend to take a good 18 months to fully recover from, and some players like Carson Palmer are never the same again. Tom Brady isn’t so young anymore, he’ll be 32 at the start of next season and may be slow to bounce back. As for the rest of the injuries, Rodney Harrison is likely to retire, Adailus Thomas is older than most casual fans think and Laurence Maroney may just be the J.D. Drew of the NFL.

Another cause of their decline is a lack of young talent. The NFL draft has not been so kind to this franchise in recent years. Losing a first round draft pick to forfeit thanks to Spygate doesn’t help, nor does consistently drafting towards the end, but the Patriots’ fetish for spending high draft picks on tight ends hasn’t solved many problems either. Jerod Mayo looks to be a solid selection from this year’s draft, but you have to go back all the way to Logan Mankins in 2005 to find the last impact player drafted by the Patriots. Throw in Vince Wilfork in 2004 and these impact guys are all first round picks. The Patriots have long been known to poses an extremely deep roster, but that depth has been depleted recently thanks in large part to a failure to find all that much talent after the second round since 2003.

Add up an aging roster lacking in young talent, an injured franchise quarterback who may never return to full health and abilities, and that little time bomb that is Randy Moss’s ego waiting to explode, and the New England Patriots are clearly a team that have already seen their best days, a team on the decline.

Needless to say, my pick was New York Jets (+3½) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.

Game of the Week

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5½) over Chicago Bears

Kyle Orton should return this week, which is a good thing for the Bears because their defense has been living by reputation lately rather than results. However, in the end the Packers will pull off the home win and get right back in the race for the NFC North.

Monday Night Cheerleader

BUFFALO BILLS (-4½) over Cleveland Browns

In this week’s episode of How I Met Your Mother, Barney (Neil Patrick Harris) explained the “Cheerleader Effect” or how I group of hot girls will seem hotter than they actually are when taken individually. I don’t think this applies to NFL cheerleaders in general, these are the hottest of the hot, but this Cheerleader Effect can very well apply to Buffalo and the Buffalo Jills Cheerleading Squad. Let’s just say the competition was not so hot for the Monday Night Cheerleader this week. I eventually had to give the title to Alecia, a rookie of the squad, who was actually excited for a Toronto “home game”.

Lock of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles (-9½) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Eagles showed again last Sunday Night that despite all of their talent, they just have a few too many glaring weaknesses, clock management being a crucial one, to win against good teams. Luckily for them, the Bengals are anything but good.

Upset of the Week

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+4½) over New Orleans Saints

Herman Edwards plays to win, and the Chiefs are bound to win another game this year and the Reggie Bush-less Saints seem to be as likely as any other team to provide that win. Besides, has anyone noticed the numbers that Tyler Thigpen has been putting up recently?

The Rest

ATLANTA FALCONS (-5½) over Denver Broncos

NFC South rule, take the home team.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Houston Texans (+8½)

And now begins a stretch of relatively easy games for the Colts before they host the Titans at the end of the season for what is likely to be a meaningless games. It is highly likely that the Colts can go 5-2 the rest of the way to end up at 10-6, grab a Wild Card, and then be everyone’s sleeper playoff team before losing in the first round. Sometimes the NFL really is predictable.

MIAMI DOLPHINS over Oakland Raiders (+10½)

There will be at least two Wildcat plays this week where we’ll just be left wondering whether Tom Cable and the Raiders have paid any attention to scouting other teams.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6½) over Baltimore Ravens

This game worries me a bit. I think this can be one of those games where the Giants come out a little too confident, while the Ravens are perfectly matched up — stuff the run and make Eli win the game — to exploit the Giants’ weaknesses. And yet I’m still not sold on Joe Flacco on the road.

Minnesota Vikings (+3½) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

An Adrian Peterson game.

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Detroit Lions (+14½)

The Lions have been improving recently, though I do use that term loosely. Prior to last week, the Lions haven’t lost a game by more than eight points since week five against the Bears. I think they continue to lose some close ones the next few weeks. Lose being the key word.

Tennessee Titans (-2½) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Last week’s Titans/Bears game reminds me of the Giants/Patriots week seventeen game from last season. The Bears, like the Giants, created the blueprint for beating an undefeated team, without actually winning. The blueprint to beat the Titans is actually pretty simple, though hard in practice: stuff their running game — and don’t let Rex Grossman give the game away. Like I mentioned, easier said than done. Looking at the upcoming schedule, the sixth-ranked Jets run defense and second-ranked Pittsburgh run defense should pose the greatest problems.

St. Louis Rams (+3½) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

West Coast teams are winless when traveling to the East Coast this season. I think that has less to do with the travel and more to do with most West Coast teams being downright terrible. This game is exhibit A.

Arizona Cardinals (-3½) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

It really is sad that thanks to their division the Cardinals are likely to go 10-6 or 11-5 and have a chance at a bye week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4½) over San Diego Chargers

I don’t know what’s going on with either of these teams. They both seem that they should be better than they actually are. Does Pittsburgh count as the East Coast?

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+1½) over Dallas Cowboys

I think the injury that affects this game won’t be Tony Romo’s, but rather Clinton Portis. Even if Portis is cleared to play, he will be severely limited. However, I think for a single game Ladell Betts can carry the load, and the Cowboys will continue their meltdown for yet another week.

A Blast from the Past

• Straight Up: 11-3 Last Week, 90-54 for the season
• Vs. Spread: 10-4 last week, 80-64 for the season
• Game of the Week: 4-6 straight, 6-4 spread
• Monday Night Cheerleader: 5-5 straight, 4-6 spread
• Lock of the Week: 8-2 straight, 7-3 spread
• Upset of the Week 4-6 straight, 6-4 spread

The Ground Rules

Home team in CAPS, spread in ( paren ). If the spread is listed after the victor, then they will cover. If the spread is listed after the loser, then it will not be covered.

Spreads are taken from ESPN.com. I don’t do lines.